FIFA World Cup 2026

48 nations. 104 matches. All pre-modelled.

Calibrated 1X2 and Over/Under 2.5 probabilities for every match. Live qualification probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. Walk-forward validated across eight prior tournaments.

Nations
48
6 confederations
Groups
12
groups of 4 · top 2 advance
Matches
104
72 group · 32 knockout
Launches in
June 11, 2026
What you get

Tournament-grade analytics. Group stage to final.

All 104 matches modelled

Pre-match calibrated 1X2 and Over/Under 2.5 probabilities for the group stage and every knockout fixture.

Live qualification probabilities

Monte Carlo simulation re-run after each matchday so every nation’s path probability stays current.

Weekly calibration recap

Post-matchday report with ECE / Brier tracking, surprise matches, and the public reliability diagram.

Group standings

12 groups, 48 nations.

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Monte Carlo · probability to lift the cup

Probability to lift the cup.

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Schedule

Upcoming matches.

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Ready for kickoff?

Pass CdM 2026 — active June 11 → July 19. One-shot, no recurring charge, methodology and track record public.

Get Pass CdM 2026 — $49
Honest filter

Be informed before you decide.

We're not a tipster service. Here's what calibrated football analytics actually means — and what it doesn't.

Not a tipster service

We sell calibrated probabilities, not winning bets. No system promises ROI.

Markets are smart

Closing market odds remain better calibrated than ours on average. We focus on transparency, not edge.

Past ≠ future

Past performance does not guarantee future results. ECE 0.026 historical does not mean every prediction is right.

Squad rotations exist

World Cup matches involve fitness uncertainty, rotations, and emotional factors harder to model than club football.

Code · JSON outputs · Methodology · All public