Calibrated football predictions.
Walk-forward validation across 8 international tournaments. Every probability bucket lands within 2 percentage points of observed frequency.
ECE = 0
June 10 → July 19, 2026 · One-shot access · 104 matches
6,447 matches · 8 tournaments · walk-forward validation
How we know we're calibrated.
Every probability we publish is back-tested on real tournaments before it goes live. No tipster gut feel, no marketing math.
ECE per tournament · 7 historical validations · lower is better
32,101 international matches
1990 — March 2026, all FIFA-recognized tournaments and qualifiers. Open-source, reproducibly versioned.
Elo + Poisson analytical
Seven parameters tuned via Optuna over 100 trials. dixon_coles_rho 0.114, home_advantage 55.69.
Walk-forward strict
Only matches BEFORE the target date inform predictions. Anti-leakage enforced across 8 historical tournaments.
100k Monte Carlo iterations
Each bracket samples 100k tournament outcomes from match probabilities. Seed 137, fully reproducible.
Our calls before the kickoff.
32 nations · WC 2026 forward predictions · updated live from current Elo ratings, qualifiers form, and squad strength.
Probabilities sampled from 100,000 Monte Carlo iterations · seed 137
See historical predictions vs outcomesOne platform, two specialists.
International football and club football play by different rules. We trained separate engines for each, optimized for their data shape.
Built for the World Cup
Elo + Poisson analytical engine. Seven parameters tuned via Optuna over 100 trials. Walk-forward validated across every World Cup and Euro since 1990.
Full access June 10 → July 19, 2026. 104 matches — group stage, knockout brackets, daily probability updates.
Get the PassBuilt for the leagues
LightGBM gradient boosting tuned via Optuna over 200 trials. Walk-forward validated across five seasons of the top 5 European leagues.
Premier League · La Liga · Serie A · Bundesliga · Ligue 1. Daily calibrated probabilities across every fixture.
Get notifiedNot a tipster service · We sell calibrated probabilities, not winning bets
104 matches. 32 nations. Six weeks.
Every match, every stage, calibrated probabilities updated daily. Group stage, knockout brackets, Monte Carlo simulations — all in one terminal-grade interface.
100,000 Monte Carlo iterations · seed 137 · updated daily
Unlock all 104 matches — $49Pick your window.
One-shot for the World Cup window, or monthly for the full European season. Same calibration discipline, different scope.
Full access during the World Cup window
June 10 → July 19, 2026
- 104 matches predicted (group + knockout)
- Daily probability updates
- Monte Carlo bracket simulator
- Group stage detailed analysis
- Knockout draw probabilities
- Methodology transparency
- Reproducibility (code + JSON public)
- Refund within 7 days
Secure checkout · Lemon Squeezy · Stripe-grade
Every fixture, every league, every week
Starting August 2026
- Premier League (380 matches/season)
- La Liga (380 matches/season)
- Serie A (380 matches/season)
- Bundesliga (306 matches/season)
- Ligue 1 (380 matches/season)
- 1X2 calibrated probabilities
- Over/Under 2.5 (top 0.5% globally · ECE 0.009)
- Weekly market analysis
- BTTS probabilities
- Cancel anytime
No commitment · Notify me when live
Be informed before you decide.
We're not a tipster service. Here's what calibrated football analytics actually means — and what it doesn't.
Not a tipster service
We sell calibrated probabilities, not winning bets. No system promises ROI.
Markets are smart
Closing market odds remain better calibrated than ours on average. We focus on transparency, not edge.
Past ≠ future
Past performance does not guarantee future results. ECE 0.026 historical does not mean every prediction is right.
Squad rotations exist
World Cup matches involve fitness uncertainty, rotations, and emotional factors harder to model than club football.
Code · JSON outputs · Methodology · All public