Public, walk-forward validated.
Every probability bucket is back-tested on eight historical tournaments before it ships to production. Below: the headline metrics for the World Cup engine, plus the live WC 2026 champion stream consumed straight from the public API.
Our calls before the kickoff.
32 nations · updated daily from current Elo ratings, qualifiers form, and squad strength. Probabilities sampled from 100,000 Monte Carlo iterations under Phase E parameters.
1X2 and Over/Under 2.5.
Two markets, two scoring rules. We report ECE (calibration), Brier (compromise) and log-loss (predictive capacity) on each.
1X2 · match outcome
Over / Under 2.5 goals
Walk-forward · 8 past tournaments.
Pooled ECE 1X2: 0.026 · Pooled ECE O/U 2.5: 0.023. The per-tournament breakdown is being recomputed under Phase E and will be republished here as soon as the re-evaluation lands — we'd rather show em-dashes than ship pre-Phase-E values.
| Tournament | Matches | ECE 1X2 |
|---|---|---|
| World Cup 2010 | 64 | — |
| Euro 2012 | 31 | — |
| World Cup 2014 | 64 | — |
| Euro 2016 | 51 | — |
| World Cup 2018 | 64 | — |
| Euro 2020 | 51 | — |
| World Cup 2022 | 64 | — |
| Euro 2024 | 51 | — |
| Pooled (8 tournaments) | 440 | 0.026 |
Reliability diagram · 8 tournaments.
Each circle is a probability bin; the radius reflects bin density. Points on the dashed line are perfectly calibrated.
Raw track record CSV.
The match-by-match CSV (predicted distribution + realised outcome) will be published from the World Cup opener onwards. Until then, see the methodology page for the full validation protocol and the Phase E reproducibility artefacts.
Be informed before you decide.
We're not a tipster service. Here's what calibrated football analytics actually means — and what it doesn't.
Not a tipster service
We sell calibrated probabilities, not winning bets. No system promises ROI.
Markets are smart
Closing market odds remain better calibrated than ours on average. We focus on transparency, not edge.
Past ≠ future
Past performance does not guarantee future results. ECE 0.026 historical does not mean every prediction is right.
Squad rotations exist
World Cup matches involve fitness uncertainty, rotations, and emotional factors harder to model than club football.
Code · JSON outputs · Methodology · All public